2026Q3 财报电话会transcript中英对照 副本

开场｜投资者关系负责人特拉维斯·阿克塞尔罗德｜00:03:30

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's third quarter 2026 Q&A webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, head of investor relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja, and a number of other executives. Our Q3 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast. During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. During the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue. Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

大家下午好，欢迎参加特斯拉2026年第三季度问答网络直播。我是投资者关系负责人特拉维斯·阿克塞尔罗德，今天和我一起出席的有特斯拉CEO马斯克、CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾以及多位高管。我们已于美国中部时间下午3点左右，在本次直播同一链接发布的更新材料中公布了第三季度业绩。本次电话会将讨论业务展望并作出前瞻性陈述，这些内容基于我们截至今天的预测和预期。受多种风险和不确定性影响，实际情况或结果可能与之存在重大差异，相关风险包括我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中所列内容。问答环节中，请每位提问者限提一个问题和一个追问，请使用"举手"按钮加入提问队列。进入问答之前，马斯克先做开场发言。埃隆？

开场发言｜马斯克｜00:04:55　需求、辅助驾驶、产能与储能

So the third quarter was very strong, and I'd like to give a big congratulations to the whole Tesla team for working hard to make it happen. Demand is growing rapidly for our vehicles. It's exceeding our production by a significant margin, and obviously we're going to be ramping, and we are ramping production meaningfully. The biggest driver for demand is full self-driving, and today there's really no competitor for FSD in any car that you can buy. And to be clear, we are producing and delivering as many cars as we can, and we're pushing very hard for FSD approval in additional markets. We're now approved in many countries in Europe, and we're hoping for an EU-wide approval. It's hard to predict, but maybe within a few months. I would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1, but obviously that's not a timeframe we control. But we do anticipate being fully approved throughout Europe and many other countries. We also began production of the Tesla Semi truck in Q3, and did the new Roadster demo, which was, I think, one of the most exciting events — arguably the coolest demo of any product ever. And that's a testament to amazing work by the Tesla and SpaceX teams. We've also been laying the groundwork for a lot more manufacturing capacity. We're aiming for five million vehicles a year by approximately 2030, and I think we've got a good shot of achieving that goal. And energy demand is very strong. We're actually almost sold out of all Megapacks for 2027, and we're ramping production as quickly as possible to meet demand. We also expect gross margins on that to increase meaningfully. So in a nutshell, after many years of sort of grind and things being fairly flat, I think we're now headed for a lot of fun and significant growth.

第三季度表现非常强劲，我要向整个特斯拉团队表示热烈祝贺，感谢大家的努力付出。我们车辆的需求正在快速增长，已经大幅超过产量。我们显然会继续产能爬坡，而且正在大幅提升产量。拉动需求的最大因素是辅助驾驶，目前市面上能买到的任何一款车，都没有能与之竞争的对手。需要说明的是，我们正在尽最大能力生产和交付车辆，同时全力推动辅助驾驶在更多市场获批。我们已经在欧洲多个国家获批，希望能获得欧盟范围内的批准。这很难预测，也许几个月内就能实现，如果拖到明年一季度之后，我会感到意外，当然这个时间表并不由我们掌控。但我们确实预计将在全欧洲以及许多其他国家全面获批。第三季度我们还开始生产Semi电动半挂卡车，并举行了新款Roadster演示活动，我认为那是最激动人心的活动之一，可以说是有史以来最酷的产品演示，这要归功于特斯拉和SpaceX团队的出色工作。我们也一直在为大幅扩充产能打基础，目标是到2030年前后实现年产500万辆，我认为我们很有希望实现这个目标。储能需求也非常强劲，2027年的特斯拉超大型商用电化学储能系统Megapack几乎已经全部售罄，我们正在尽快提升产量以满足需求，也预计这部分业务的毛利率将显著提升。总而言之，经过多年的艰苦打磨、业绩相对平稳的阶段之后，我认为我们正迎来一段非常精彩的显著增长期。

开场发言｜马斯克｜00:07:25　无人驾驶网约车服务

Regarding Robotaxi, we're seeing the Robotaxi miles driven, or fully autonomous miles driven, scale exponentially, meaning scaling very rapidly. It would be hard to overstate this point. It really is an extremely fast week-over-week growth in autonomous miles, and I don't think there's any company in the world that can match our scale with autonomous vehicles as we continue to ramp. The Cybercab fleet in Austin, for example, has grown by a factor of ten since launch about a month ago. And the cumulative mileage — when I look at the weekly chart, it's wow. It looks like a rocket going to orbit, basically. It's growing very fast. If you want to try it out, come to Austin and you'll see Cybercabs in use at scale, as I think a lot of people saw with the Austin City Limits concert recently. So this is really going to a very good place.

关于特斯拉无人驾驶网约车服务，我们看到网约车的行驶里程，也就是完全自动驾驶里程，正在呈指数级增长，也就是增长得非常快。这一点怎么强调都不为过，自动驾驶里程的周环比增速确实极快。随着我们持续扩大规模，我认为全世界没有哪家公司能在自动驾驶车辆规模上与我们匹敌。比如奥斯汀的特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车车队，自大约一个月前投入运营以来已经增长到原来的10倍。看累计里程的周度图表，真是让人惊叹，基本上就像一枚冲向轨道的火箭，增长非常快。如果想体验，欢迎来奥斯汀，你会看到特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车已经在当地规模化运营，我想很多人在最近的奥斯汀城市极限音乐节上已经见识过了。所以这项业务的发展态势非常好。

开场发言｜马斯克｜00:08:48　特斯拉人形机器人

Regarding Optimus, we've started what I'd call early production on our high-volume line in Fremont. Now, I want to elaborate on this point, and I've said this before: the growth of Optimus is an S-curve, but the initial part of the S-curve has a shallow slope and is somewhat bumpy, because it is such a radically new product. The way to think about it is there's like ten thousand things that have to go right for production of the robot, and it'll move as fast as the slowest, least lucky of the ten thousand. But we do have the vast majority of a million-unit-per-line production line landed in Fremont right now. I would expect that it takes us probably at least a year, maybe a little longer, to get to that annualized rate, to get to twenty thousand units a week. That's fundamentally because there are still parts of the design that are changing. A lot of people ask me about Optimus, so that's why I've got to sort of belabor this point. If people don't understand new technology or volume production of complex new hardware that well, it sort of seems like, well, can't you just make a whole bunch of these things immediately and send them out? And it's like, no, you've got to basically build up an entire gigantic global supply chain, have domestically a very, very big factory, and everything's got to work. There are still some things we need to tweak about the design, because you need to deliver a robot that is safe and reliable and has long duration — it can't wear out after a month. And there's still quite a lot of work to do with regard to the AI and the robot for it to be truly useful for open-ended tasks. But like I said, I do expect the AI, the electromechanical design, the reliability and the usage life of the robot — I do expect these issues to be solved around the end of next year. So that's the time to expect when we're delivering Optimus to companies outside of Tesla. And I remain convinced that Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth, and humanoid robots in general will be the biggest product on Earth. So Optimus is a very big deal. But I do want to temper expectations: we still have a lot to get through, and it's about a year or so that it'll take us to get through all that stuff. But to the best of my knowledge, there is no one that is even close to Tesla with respect to a general-purpose humanoid robot.

关于特斯拉人形机器人，我们已经在弗里蒙特工厂的大规模生产线上开始了我称之为"早期生产"的阶段。我想展开讲讲这一点，我之前也说过：特斯拉人形机器人的增长是一条S曲线，但S曲线的起始阶段斜率较缓，而且会有些波折，因为这是一款全新的颠覆性产品。可以这样理解：生产机器人有大约一万件事情必须做对，整体进度取决于这一万件事中最慢、最不顺利的那一件。不过，单条年产能百万台的生产线，绝大部分设备目前已经运抵弗里蒙特工厂。我预计至少还需要一年，也许更久一点，才能达到这个年化产能，也就是每周两万台。根本原因在于设计仍有部分在调整。很多人问我特斯拉人形机器人的事，所以我得反复强调这一点。如果不太了解新技术，或者不太了解复杂新硬件的量产，可能会觉得：难道不能马上造一大批发出去吗？答案是不能。你基本上要搭建一整条庞大的全球供应链，还要在本土建一座非常非常大的工厂，而且每个环节都必须运转正常。设计上还有一些地方需要微调，因为交付的机器人必须安全可靠、经久耐用，不能用一个月就坏了。在AI和机器人本体方面，要让它真正胜任开放式任务，也还有大量工作要做。但正如我所说，我确实预计AI、机电设计、可靠性和机器人的使用寿命这些问题，会在明年年底前后得到解决。所以，届时就可以预期我们开始向特斯拉以外的公司交付人形机器人。我依然坚信，特斯拉人形机器人将成为地球上最大的产品，人形机器人整体也将成为地球上最大的产品，所以它意义非常重大。不过我还是想给大家的预期降降温：我们仍有很多难关要过，大概还需要一年左右的时间才能把这些问题都解决。但据我所知，在通用人形机器人领域，没有任何一家公司能接近特斯拉的水平。

开场发言｜马斯克｜00:12:20　Terafab晶圆厂与SpaceX

Regarding the Terafab, the Austin-based research fab is progressing quickly. We'll begin commissioning machinery in the first half of next year, and hopefully, if things go well, we'll make our first test chip — just to see if we can make any chip at all — around May or June. So that's, I think, pretty exciting. And then our aspiration is to be making some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028. As I've said publicly on X, the Terafab, I think, will be the most valuable building in the world and will probably have an economic value that will place it in the top 20 of countries. So it's an epic project. And this will be an incredibly important asset, if not a necessary asset, in order to scale, especially Optimus, as we can address bottlenecks in semiconductors, whether it's memory, packaging, logic, or whatever the case may be. With regard to a potential merger with SpaceX, I think I said everything that should be said yesterday — tap dancing through a minefield there. And yeah, that's it.

关于Terafab，位于奥斯汀的研发晶圆厂进展很快。我们将在明年上半年开始调试设备，如果一切顺利，有望在5月或6月前后造出第一颗测试芯片，先看看我们到底能不能造出芯片来。我觉得这非常令人兴奋。之后，我们的目标是在2028年第三季度前后量产某种实用的芯片。正如我在X上公开说过的，我认为Terafab将成为全球最有价值的建筑，其经济价值很可能足以跻身全球国家排名前20位。所以这是一个史诗级的项目。它将是一项极其重要、甚至必不可少的资产，尤其是对特斯拉人形机器人的规模化而言，因为它能帮助我们解决半导体方面的瓶颈，无论是存储、封装、逻辑芯片还是其他环节。至于与SpaceX可能合并的问题，我想该说的我昨天都已经说了，这就像在雷区里跳踢踏舞。好，就这些。

开场发言｜马斯克｜00:13:56　结语

In conclusion, we're super excited about our autonomy and robotics roadmap. There's a lot of incredibly awesome stuff coming, and I'd like to once again thank the Tesla team for their strong execution and all of our supporters for joining us on this journey.

总而言之，我们对自主技术和机器人路线图感到非常兴奋，接下来还有大量令人惊叹的成果。我想再次感谢特斯拉团队的出色执行，也感谢所有支持者与我们同行。

开场发言｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾｜00:14:18　交付、需求与辅助驾驶

Thanks, Travis. We continued our progress on a lot of fronts in Q3, and Elon already covered a lot of them. Additionally, I'd like to add that we also started deliveries of Megapacks with our in-house LFP batteries, and for the first time, we had two consecutive quarters of vehicle deliveries of over 480k. On the automotive business, we exited the quarter with our highest backlog in four years, with deliveries constrained primarily by production. We are therefore focused on increasing production at all our factories to meet this growing demand. While we are actively working to increase production, it does take some time to get every aspect dialed in, from supply chain to manufacturing to delivery logistics. The Model Y continued to outperform in the quarter and set delivery records in several key markets. Based on the preliminary data we've gathered, we believe it was the number-one selling BEV in Europe and the number-one selling passenger car in South Korea. We also set new records in key markets including Australia, Japan and Taiwan. As Elon said, FSD continues to be the key driver for demand. In Q3, over 75% of deliveries in North America included a sign-up for a paid FSD subscription at the time of delivery, which is approximately 20% higher than Q2. Overall, the FSD attach rate continued to improve, reaching over 1.7 million paid customers globally, of which, for the first time, 50% is based on subscriptions. Given the strength of FSD in the U.S., we are taking extra steps to sell certain cars in Europe with some benefits, to try and get more fleet out there before a broader FSD approval is obtained.

谢谢特拉维斯。第三季度我们在多个方面持续取得进展，埃隆已经讲了很多。我再补充几点：我们开始交付搭载自产磷酸铁锂电池的特斯拉储能系统Megapack；车辆交付量也首次连续两个季度超过48万辆。汽车业务方面，我们以四年来最高的订单储备结束本季度，交付主要受产能制约，因此我们正专注于提升各工厂的产量，以满足不断增长的需求。我们正在积极提产，但从供应链、制造到交付物流，每个环节都调校到位需要一定时间。Model Y本季度继续表现出色，在多个重点市场创下交付纪录。根据初步数据，我们认为它是欧洲最畅销的纯电动车，也是韩国最畅销的乘用车。我们还在澳大利亚、日本和台湾等重点市场创下新纪录。正如埃隆所说，辅助驾驶依然是拉动需求的关键。第三季度，北美超过75%的交付车辆在交付时开通了付费辅助驾驶，比第二季度提高约20%（编者注：股东信口径为环比提升近20个百分点）。整体来看，辅助驾驶选装率持续提升，全球付费用户已超过170万，其中订阅用户占比首次达到50%。鉴于辅助驾驶在美国的强劲表现，我们正在欧洲为部分车辆的销售提供一些额外优惠，力争在辅助驾驶获得更大范围批准之前，让更多车辆进入市场。

开场发言｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾｜00:16:20　利润率、储能、服务与无人驾驶网约车

On automotive margins, excluding credits, they increased sequentially from 16.3% to 18.1%. The improvement in margins is driven by a higher mix of deliveries in APAC. While commodity price increases and interest rate changes continue to add to our costs and create further headwinds, we have adjusted the vehicle financing programs to partially offset such costs. On the energy business, we had our second-best quarter of deployments, at 13.7 gigawatt hours of energy storage. Energy gross margins improved from 20.4% to 33.1%. The sequential margin improvement is primarily attributed to tariff refunds recognized in the quarter, and warranty true-downs resulting from alignment with our vendor on certain cell-related costs to be reimbursed by them. As Elon said, the business is witnessing extreme demand from data centers, and we are doing our best to increase production; accordingly, we'll see improvements in ASP and further improvements in margins as we move forward. Services and other margins improved sequentially from 14.1% to 15.9%, an all-time high. This was the result of strength across several of the businesses in services and other, including Supercharging and insurance. The Robotaxi business, which is part of services and other, continued to grow with the launch of Cybercab rides in Austin. Cumulative unsupervised miles grew 8x in the quarter, as we had weekly double-digit growth throughout the quarter. We're taking all the learnings from our Austin expansion to help us prepare for a broader Cybercab launch in other markets. Our priority is progressing the density and expansion of the network through vehicles that provide the best experience, like the Cybercab. We will also continue to augment the fleet with other variants over time to address the terrestrial transportation needs of the total population. I'd like to stress that what we are trying to do is literally take over every part of terrestrial transportation. We're starting with getting people from one place to the other, but we want to basically own transportation of any kind on Earth.

汽车业务利润率方面，不含碳积分的汽车毛利率环比从16.3%提升至18.1%，主要得益于亚太地区交付占比提高。尽管大宗商品涨价和利率变化继续推高成本、带来更多不利因素，我们已调整车辆金融方案，部分抵消了这些成本。能源业务方面，储能装机量达到13.7吉瓦时，为历史第二高的季度。能源业务毛利率从20.4%提升至33.1%，环比改善主要来自本季度确认的关税退款，以及与供应商就部分电芯相关成本达成由其承担的安排后，相应调减的质保准备金。正如埃隆所说，该业务正迎来来自数据中心的极其旺盛的需求，我们正全力提升产量，未来平均售价和毛利率也将随之进一步改善。服务及其他业务毛利率环比从14.1%提升至15.9%，创历史新高，这得益于超级充电、保险等多项业务的强劲表现。特斯拉无人驾驶网约车服务属于服务及其他业务，随着特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车在奥斯汀开始载客，该业务持续增长。本季度累计无监管里程增至上季度末的8倍，整个季度每周都保持两位数增长。我们正把奥斯汀扩张中积累的全部经验用于筹备特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车在更多市场的推出。我们的首要任务是依托特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车这类能提供最佳体验的车辆，提升网络密度并扩大覆盖范围。随着时间推移，我们也会在车队中加入其他车型，满足全体人群的地面出行需求。我想强调，我们要做的，确实是覆盖地面交通的方方面面。我们从载人出行起步，但目标基本上是涵盖地球上各种形式的交通运输。

开场发言｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾｜00:18:57　费用、现金与资本支出

We are in a huge investment cycle to set us up for the future. Therefore, as previously guided, operating expenses continue to increase sequentially. Most of the increase came from significant research and development-related activities, including SI development costs such as depreciation from additional compute, chip development, and pre-production ramp costs for new products like Optimus, Megapack 3 and the Semi truck. This trend of growing OpEx will continue until we commercialize these new products. Net income was impacted by a mark-to-market reduction of our SpaceX holding of $142 million, which was offset by a Bitcoin mark-to-market gain of approximately $290 million. We continued our efforts to manage cash efficiently and responsibly. We ended the quarter with positive free cash flow of over $1.5 billion and an overall cash and investment balance of over $45 billion. We're revising our CapEx guidance to be approximately $20 billion for the current year, as a result of managing our capital deployment efficiently, and plan to fund it primarily from our cash flows from operations. Additionally, during the quarter, we secured capacity to borrow up to $30 billion to support the expected growth in CapEx. Our confidence in the cash generation capacity of our business and the investments we are making drove our decision to secure shorter-term financing. We don't plan to make any draws under any of the new facilities in this calendar year. The money we received from the tariff refunds is being reinvested to expand production capacity in the US. I'd like to stress that we like to do a lot of hardcore, real grunt work to get production facilities up and running. And so our CapEx for the next few years will continue to expand as we add more Robotaxi fleet, expand our production capacity for Optimus, install manufacturing capacity for solar, purchase additional SI compute infrastructure, and build a semiconductor fab. This strategy will position the company for the next era of growth and disrupt many existing markets while creating new ones. This is by far the most exciting time to be at Tesla. The foundation being laid around autonomy, robotics and energy is setting us up for an extremely bright future. I would like to end by thanking the Tesla team, our customers, investors and suppliers for their confidence in us on this journey.

我们正处于为未来布局的大规模投资周期。因此，正如此前指引，营业费用继续环比增长。增量主要来自大规模研发活动，包括超级智能（SI）开发成本，例如新增算力的折旧、芯片研发，以及特斯拉人形机器人、Megapack 3、Semi电动半挂卡车等新产品的量产前爬坡成本。在这些新产品实现商业化之前，营业费用增长的趋势还将持续。净利润受到所持SpaceX股权按市值计价减少1.42亿美元的影响，但被比特币按市值计价约2.9亿美元的收益所抵消。我们继续高效、审慎地管理现金。本季度末自由现金流为正，超过15亿美元，现金和投资余额合计超过450亿美元。由于资本配置管理更加高效，我们将今年的资本支出指引下调至约200亿美元，并计划主要以营运现金流提供资金。此外，本季度我们获得了最高300亿美元的借款额度，以支持预期增长的资本支出。基于对自身业务造血能力和所做投资的信心，我们决定采用期限较短的融资安排。本年度内我们不打算动用任何新增授信。收到的关税退款正被再投资于扩大美国本土产能。我想强调，为了让生产设施建成投产，我们愿意下苦功、做大量扎实的基础工作。因此，未来几年我们的资本支出将继续扩大，用于扩充无人驾驶网约车车队、扩大特斯拉人形机器人产能、建设太阳能制造产能、采购更多SI算力基础设施，以及建设半导体晶圆厂。这一战略将让公司迎来下一个增长时代，颠覆众多现有市场，同时开创新市场。现在无疑是身处特斯拉最激动人心的时刻，我们在自主技术、机器人和能源领域打下的基础，正为公司开启极其光明的未来。最后，感谢特斯拉团队、我们的客户、投资者和供应商在这段旅程中对我们的信任。

Q1｜股东提问（say.com）｜00:21:42　特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车如何走出奥斯汀

Fantastic, thank you, Vaibhav. Now we're going to go to questions from say.com. The first question is: How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what's the regulatory path outside Texas, given NHTSA's open safety review? Ashok, did you want to take that?

好的，谢谢瓦巴夫。接下来进入say.com平台的股东提问。第一个问题是：特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车车队如何扩展到奥斯汀以外？鉴于美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）仍在进行安全审查，得州以外的监管路径是怎样的？阿肖克，你来回答吧？

A｜AI副总裁阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米｜00:21:58

Yeah, I'll start here. First of all, we launched Cybercab this quarter, which is very exciting. We achieved that by mostly learning from data from the other vehicle platforms, for example Model Y, Model 3, et cetera. All of that data helped make the Cybercab work without requiring a ridiculous amount of vehicles to produce the data, so we are seeing very good scaling in terms of Cybercab's AI capabilities. We launched in Austin, but that's only because we had some cabs and we want to swarm Austin with Cybercabs everywhere. There's no fundamental reason that we are limited to Austin. In fact, next month we'll be launching in Dallas, and then the same software will just scale to lots of other cities, along with the Model Y Robotaxis.

我先来回答。首先，我们本季度推出了特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车，这非常令人振奋。我们主要是通过学习其他车型平台的数据做到的，比如Model Y、Model 3等。这些数据帮助特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车顺利上路，而不需要投入数量惊人的车辆专门采集数据，所以我们看到它的AI能力扩展得非常好。我们先在奥斯汀推出，只是因为手上有一批车，想让奥斯汀到处都是特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车。从根本上说，我们并不局限于奥斯汀。事实上，下个月我们将在达拉斯推出，之后同一套软件就能连同Model Y无人驾驶网约车一起，扩展到许多其他城市。

Q2｜股东提问（say.com）｜00:22:45　特斯拉人形机器人训练数据是否是主要瓶颈

Great, thanks very much. The next question is: What are your thoughts on crowdsourcing training data for Optimus versus your internal Optimus Academy approach? Is data currently the primary bottleneck? I think you covered this quite a bit, but any other color there?

好的，非常感谢。下一个问题是：对于为特斯拉人形机器人众包训练数据，与你们内部的"特斯拉人形机器人学院"模式相比，你们怎么看？数据目前是主要瓶颈吗？我想你们已经谈了不少，还有什么补充吗？

A｜马斯克｜00:22:56

We mostly talked about this already, but crowdsourcing is not the issue for Optimus. There's a lot of things we have to get right about the AI architecture that we're still working on. We're making good progress, but that needs to be sorted out. And really, in order for Optimus to get the training data we need, we actually need to make a lot of Optimi. We need to make, I think, on the order of ten or twenty thousand bots and then have them do self-play. We're building out an Optimus Academy where Optimus can practice doing a very wide range of tasks, and then we can use that data in sort of a flywheel to make it better and better at these various tasks. A big difference with Optimus versus the cars is we don't have this vast fleet of cars from which we can gather training data. So with Optimus, we have to bootstrap it by making the robots and having them do self-play, which is really how a human learns to navigate the world. You can see this when you have a toddler: initially they're sort of wobbly and they don't know how to do things, and eventually they learn to wipe their own ass, which is a big milestone, as anyone who's had kids knows. Then they learn to read and do all sorts of things, and they learn this by playing. We actually need Optimus to play at scale in order to have it be really good at tasks in the real world. Ashok, you may want to add to that.

这个问题我们基本已经谈过了，但众包并不是特斯拉人形机器人面临的问题。在AI架构上，我们还有很多地方需要做对，这方面仍在攻关。我们进展不错，但这个问题必须解决。说到底，要让特斯拉人形机器人获得所需的训练数据，我们其实需要造出大量机器人。我认为需要造出一两万台量级的机器人，然后让它们进行自我对弈式练习。我们正在建设"特斯拉人形机器人学院"，让机器人在里面练习各种各样的任务，再把这些数据用于一种飞轮机制，让它在各类任务上越做越好。特斯拉人形机器人与汽车的一大区别在于，我们没有庞大的车队可以采集训练数据。所以对于人形机器人，我们只能从零起步：先造出机器人，让它们自我练习，这其实也正是人类学会适应世界的方式。看看蹒跚学步的孩子就知道了：一开始走路摇摇晃晃，什么都不会做，后来终于学会自己擦屁股，这可是个重要的里程碑，养过孩子的人都懂。再后来他们学会阅读、学会做各种事情，而这些都是在玩耍中学会的。我们确实需要让特斯拉人形机器人大规模地"玩"，才能让它真正胜任现实世界中的任务。阿肖克，你可以补充一下。

A｜AI副总裁阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米｜00:24:53

Yeah. Like you mentioned, Elon, for the car we actually have the data from the car's embodiment itself, but for Optimus there's no exoskeleton for humans to get into and make Optimus into a puppet or something like that. Optimus has to learn by watching other people do tasks initially and then start practicing the task itself. For example, if you're watching a soccer game, just because you're watching it doesn't mean you'll be good at soccer yourself. You've got to start practicing, get good at the game and learn from the bot's own experience. We are setting up this huge reinforcement learning cycle, with initial base training done from humans to bootstrap, and then put it on Optimus and do a lot of self-play, both in simulation and in the real world, to learn on the embodiment of Optimus itself. I think we're pretty close to having very good results in this big loop.

是的。正如埃隆说的，对于汽车，我们能直接从车辆本体获得数据；但对于特斯拉人形机器人，并没有一套外骨骼能让人穿上去、把机器人当木偶一样操控。机器人一开始必须通过观看人类完成任务来学习，然后自己开始练习。比如看足球比赛，光看并不会让你自己踢得好，你得开始练，把球踢好，从机器人自身的经验中学习。我们正在搭建一个大规模的强化学习循环：先用人类数据做基础训练完成起步，再部署到机器人上，在仿真和现实世界中大量自我练习，基于机器人自身的身体来学习。我认为这个大循环很快就会取得非常好的成果。

A｜马斯克｜00:25:44

Yeah. I think we may be ready to release an Optimus video in a month or so. I want to make sure that when we release this video, it's not a canned demo. When you see these humanoid robot demonstrations, some of them look very impressive, but they're not really using any kind of advanced AI or SI — they're like pre-programmed deterministic tasks. If you actually try to use that humanoid robot in the real world, you would have a lot of trouble; it wouldn't work, basically. So I want to release a video where Optimus is doing things that are not pre-programmed. It's maybe a month or two for that, to have a demo that's a "you can believe what you see" type of thing. And then there's another milestone that I think is important, which is to integrate the Tesla AI5 chip into Optimus, which, if things go according to plan, will be in approximately April of next year. That's a giant improvement in capability, with an order of magnitude more operations per second — an order of magnitude more compute, AI5 versus AI4. That will help Optimus a lot, because the degrees of freedom a humanoid robot has to deal with are far greater than what a car has to deal with. It is a bit of a struggle to squeeze in everything needed to operate with all the degrees of freedom of Optimus and the wide range of tasks. A humanoid robot is going to do a thousand times more things than a car would do — some very big number, basically. So the additional compute of AI5 will make a big difference, and that comes, hopefully in volume, around April of next year. That's why I think all the pieces — the refinements in electromechanical dexterity, making sure Optimus can operate for long periods without wearing out, getting the AI software right, and integrating the AI5 chip — all of these things kind of come together. That's why I think about a year from now is when it's something you could ship to customers, and it would also be reaching scale in production. That's probably the right timing to think about. In terms of the initial customers for Optimus, I think it would probably be industrial applications at first: dangerous, repetitive tasks, things people really don't want to do, and that you want done basically 24/7, around the clock. That's going to be the highest value for Optimus in the beginning. As we scale production, of course, it would be something people can buy for their home. But the initial highest-value use will be heavy industry, dangerous tasks, or things that may cause repetitive stress injuries and that you want done 24/7. That's the way to think about it.

是的。我想大概一个月后，我们可能就可以发布一段特斯拉人形机器人的视频。我要确保发布的视频不是事先编排好的演示。你看到的一些人形机器人演示看起来非常惊艳，但它们并没有真正用到先进的AI或SI，基本都是预先编程好的确定性动作。如果真把那种人形机器人拿到现实世界里用，会遇到大量问题，基本上行不通。所以我希望发布的视频里，机器人做的事情都不是预先编程的。这大概还需要一两个月，做出一个"所见即所得"的演示。

另一个重要里程碑，是把特斯拉AI5芯片集成到人形机器人上，如果一切按计划进行，大约在明年4月。这是能力上的巨大提升，每秒运算次数提高一个数量级，也就是说AI5的算力比AI4高一个数量级。这对人形机器人帮助很大，因为人形机器人要处理的自由度远多于汽车。要把操控机器人全部自由度、完成各种任务所需的一切都塞进去，确实有点吃力。人形机器人要做的事情大概是汽车的一千倍，总之是个非常大的数字。所以AI5带来的额外算力会产生很大的影响，有望在明年4月前后实现量产供货。

这就是为什么我认为，机电灵巧性的改进、确保机器人能长时间运行而不磨损、把AI软件做好、集成AI5芯片，所有这些会在差不多同一时间汇合。因此我认为大约一年后，它就可以交付给客户，生产也将形成规模，这大概是比较合理的预期时间。

至于特斯拉人形机器人的首批客户，我认为一开始可能是工业应用：危险的、重复性的、人们实在不愿意做的工作，而且基本需要全天候24小时不间断进行。这将是人形机器人初期价值最高的用途。随着产量扩大，当然普通人也能买来放在家里用。但初期价值最高的用途，会是重工业、危险作业，或者容易造成重复性劳损、又需要24小时不间断完成的工作。大致可以这样理解。

Q3｜股东提问（say.com）｜00:29:30　客户车辆何时能用上无需监管的完全自动驾驶

Great, thank you, guys. The next question is very similar — it's about Optimus scaling, so we can go past that one. (Elon: Same answer to that one, basically.) And the next question is: When can we anticipate FSD Unsupervised in customer cars? Ashok, did you want to kick that off?

好的，谢谢各位。下一个问题与刚才的非常相似，也是关于特斯拉人形机器人的规模化，我们就跳过了。（马斯克：答案基本一样。）再下一个问题是：客户的车辆预计何时能用上无需监管的完全自动驾驶？阿肖克，你先来？

A｜AI副总裁阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米｜00:29:45

Yeah. Like I mentioned earlier, the software for Cybercab and Model Y is the same, and pretty soon we'll be able to release the same software as part of the V15 release to customers. The only additional requirement is to make sure that, for example, customer Model Ys can be part of the geofences and the fleet management that Tesla has, for it to be fully autonomous. We expect somewhere around Q2 next year is when we can turn on some of the first customer vehicles to be part of the Robotaxi fleet.

好的。正如我之前提到的，特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车和Model Y用的是同一套软件，很快我们就能把这套软件作为V15版本的一部分推送给客户。唯一额外的要求是，例如客户的Model Y需要纳入特斯拉的地理围栏和车队管理体系，才能实现完全自动驾驶。我们预计明年第二季度前后，可以让首批客户车辆加入无人驾驶网约车车队。

Q4｜股东提问（say.com）｜00:30:23　客户何时能购买特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车

Great, thank you, Ashok. The next question is: When will the Cybercab be available for customer purchase or ownership? Lars, did you want to kick this one off?

好的，谢谢阿肖克。下一个问题是：客户什么时候能购买、拥有特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车？拉尔斯，你先来？

A｜车辆工程副总裁拉尔斯·莫拉维｜00:30:31

Sure, thanks, Travis. I think it builds a little bit on what Ashok just said, but in short, we're trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026. Obviously we're producing them on our line in Texas, but all of those are currently going to our own internal Robotaxi fleet. As Tesla grows, we'll mainly deliver fully autonomous vehicles to our customers, and Cybercab will be the first. So as we start small this year and learn about all the things Ashok mentioned — delivery, ownership and fleet management of autonomous vehicles in customer hands — we'll continue to scale that. Elon, I don't know if there's anything you want to add.

好的，谢谢特拉维斯。这和阿肖克刚才说的有些关联。简单来说，我们正努力在今年，也就是2026年年底前，把特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车交付给客户。目前这些车在得州的生产线上生产，但现阶段全部投入我们自己的无人驾驶网约车车队。随着特斯拉的发展，我们交付给客户的将主要是完全自动驾驶车辆，特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车会是第一款。今年我们先小规模起步，学习阿肖克提到的种种问题，包括自动驾驶车辆在客户手中的交付、所有权和车队管理，然后逐步扩大规模。埃隆，你还有要补充的吗？

A｜马斯克｜00:31:05

No. I mean, Cybercab is primarily going to be offered as transport as a service, whereas our other cars would be more the cars that you'd want to own, like the 3 and the Y and whatnot, and the Roadster, obviously. But the vast majority of Cybercabs will be essentially Tesla-owned and transport as a service.

没有了。特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车主要会以"出行即服务"的形式提供，而我们的其他车型，比如Model 3、Model Y等，当然还有Roadster，更多是你会想要自己拥有的车。绝大多数特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车基本上会由特斯拉持有，以出行服务的方式运营。

Q5｜股东提问（say.com）｜00:31:38　无人驾驶网约车每英里成本与人形机器人单台成本

Great, thanks, guys. The next two questions are quite similar, around unit economics: the first one is cost per paid Robotaxi mile, and the second one is cost per Optimus unit. We already covered what the first paying customer looks like. Vaibhav, did you want to get into the unit economics question?

好的，谢谢各位。接下来两个问题很相似，都关于单位经济性：一个是无人驾驶网约车每付费英里的成本，另一个是特斯拉人形机器人的单台成本。首批付费客户会是什么样，我们已经谈过了。瓦巴夫，你来讲讲单位经济性？

A｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾｜00:32:00

Yeah. On the Robotaxi side, in the main geographies where we are operating, we're already seeing utilization improving week by week; as Elon was talking about, we look at the miles and how many paid rides are happening. So are we at our goal of 30 cents today? No. But do we see a path to get there? Yes, we do, and it's all about scaling operations. Today, Cybercab, which is the primary Robotaxi product, is available only in Austin, but we do plan to bring it out in some other cities before the end of this year. As we add more Cybercabs, we are also learning from the operational experience of managing a fleet — pick-up and drop-off, cleaning, all those things. All those costs are being dialed in, and that's why, like I said, we definitely see a path to our 30-cent target. [Travis: And then did you want to cover the Optimus costs?]

好的。无人驾驶网约车方面，在我们运营的主要地区，利用率已经在逐周提升。正如埃隆所说，我们会跟踪行驶里程和付费乘车次数。我们现在达到每英里30美分的目标了吗？还没有。但我们看得到实现路径吗？看得到，关键在于扩大运营规模。目前，作为无人驾驶网约车主力产品的特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车只在奥斯汀运营，但我们计划在今年年底前推广到其他一些城市。随着车辆增加，我们也在积累车队管理的运营经验，包括接送、清洁等各个环节。这些成本都在逐步优化，所以我们确实看得到实现30美分目标的路径。（特拉维斯：接下来也讲讲人形机器人的成本？）

A｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾（续）｜00:33:17

Yeah. On Optimus cost, internally we are tracking pretty well in terms of how the design has matured. But it would be a little too early to say we've got there, because, like Elon was saying, we're still making a lot of design iterations. The good thing is, from a cost perspective, we're trending closer to where we would say our Cybercab costs would end up being.

好的。特斯拉人形机器人的成本方面，从内部看，随着设计逐步成熟，成本走势相当不错。但现在说已经达标还为时尚早，因为正如埃隆所说，我们仍在大量迭代设计。好消息是，从成本角度看，它正逐步接近我们预计的特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车最终成本水平。

Q6｜股东提问（say.com）｜00:33:49　辅助驾驶地图问题，为何不自建地图

Great, thank you very much. The next question — we've kind of already answered this — is when do you anticipate Optimus will be generating revenue, so we covered that in a prior question. The next one is: "Mapping for FSD continues to be a problem. The three biggest issues are recognizing proper speed limits, parking, and typical routes. I understand you use various third-party maps, but why not use your own maps? Authorize trusted and verified Tesla owners to provide the input." Ashok, did you want to kick off here?

好的，非常感谢。下一个问题我们基本已经回答过了：预计特斯拉人形机器人何时开始产生收入，前面已经谈到。再下一个问题是："辅助驾驶的地图依然是个问题，最大的三个问题是识别正确限速、停车和常用路线。我知道你们使用多家第三方地图，为什么不用自己的地图？可以授权可信、经过认证的特斯拉车主来提供信息。"阿肖克，你先来？

A｜AI副总裁阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米｜00:34:22

Yep. You're totally right that we shouldn't be depending on external maps, so we are building our own maps, but not in the same way as conventional maps. We are building an entirely new architecture with essentially AI-based mapping and navigation. It's going to be super awesome and integrated with voice: you can talk to it and ask for different routes. It's going to learn your personalized preferences, plus the fleet preferences — the collective intelligence of all the cars is going to flow into making the maps and navigation super cool. You'll see the start and end of trips already use this technology pretty soon, as part of the V15 release, and over the next several months it's going to take over all of the navigation functions, parking and destination handling. In some regard, it will know you better than you know yourself for the driving task, and handle it fully.

是的。您说得完全对，我们不应该依赖外部地图，所以我们正在构建自己的地图，但方式和传统地图不同。我们正在打造一套全新的架构，本质上是基于AI的地图和导航。它会非常出色，而且与语音集成：你可以直接跟它对话，询问不同路线。它会学习你的个人偏好，以及整个车队的偏好，所有车辆的集体智慧都会汇入地图和导航中。很快，在V15版本中，你就会看到行程的起点和终点环节已经用上这项技术；在接下来几个月里，它将接管全部导航功能，包括停车和目的地处理。在驾驶这件事上，某种程度上它会比你自己更了解你，并能全程处理好。

Q7｜股东提问（say.com）｜00:35:18　现有工厂产能及是否新建工厂

Great, thank you, Ashok. And then our last question is: "What is the current production rate at your existing factories? Do you anticipate building new ones?" Lars, do you want to kick that off?

好的，谢谢阿肖克。最后一个问题是："现有工厂目前的生产速度是多少？是否计划新建工厂？"拉尔斯，你先来？

A｜车辆工程副总裁拉尔斯·莫拉维｜00:35:31

Yeah, sure. I think Vaibhav touched a little bit on this in his opening remarks. Our factories are operating at record rates this quarter, and of course we can only build at the rate of the least lucky process or component. As Vaibhav mentioned, we are actively managing all aspects of production. As we've spoken about in past calls, we've made strategic investments globally over the last year to increase rates at our current factories, and this quarter we are starting to see that; we expect it to continue in coming quarters as those investments come to fruition. Beyond that, we're also working to ramp Cybercab at Giga Texas, and we've applied for the proper permits to expand the factory in Berlin. And as Elon mentioned, we just started our new Semi factory in Reno. So in short, yes, we are building new factories, and we're aiming to hit that five million goal by 2030, as Elon said.

好的。瓦巴夫在开场发言中已经稍微谈到这一点。本季度我们的工厂都在以创纪录的速度运转，当然，整体产量只能跟上最不顺利的那道工序或那个零部件。正如瓦巴夫提到的，我们正在积极管理生产的各个环节。正如我们在以往电话会上讲过的，过去一年我们在全球做了一系列战略投资，以提升现有工厂的产能，本季度已经开始见效，随着这些投资陆续落地，预计未来几个季度会继续体现。此外，我们正在得州超级工厂推进特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车的产能爬坡，并已为柏林超级工厂扩建申请了相应许可。正如埃隆提到的，我们在里诺的Semi电动半挂卡车新工厂也刚刚投产。所以简单来说，是的，我们在建新工厂，目标是如埃隆所说，到2030年实现年产500万辆。

分析师提问环节｜投资者关系负责人特拉维斯·阿克塞尔罗德｜00:36:28

Great, thank you very much. That's it for the say.com questions. Now we will be going to analyst questions. As a reminder, as Elon said, we will not be addressing any questions today on a potential merger with SpaceX.

好的，非常感谢。say.com平台的提问到此结束，接下来进入分析师提问环节。再次提醒，正如埃隆所说，今天我们不回答任何有关与SpaceX可能合并的问题。

Q8｜RBC资本市场分析师Tom｜00:36:47　辅助驾驶选装率与竞品价格压力

Yeah, thanks for taking the question. It's on FSD. The attach rate, I think according to my math, is like 30% to 40% in North America on a paid basis. It's becoming a flywheel, as you said, for more car sales, and the attach rate exceeds other automakers' subscription-based autonomy by a lot. In a weird way, could you be a victim of your own success, with other carmakers noting the success and trying to aggressively come up with similar L2+ type products, maybe partnering with NVIDIA or Qualcomm? And if that happens, could that be deflationary for FSD pricing?

谢谢回答我的问题，是关于辅助驾驶的。按我的计算，北美付费选装率大约在30%到40%。正如你们所说，它正成为推动汽车销量的飞轮，选装率也远远高于其他车企基于订阅的自动驾驶产品。说来有点反常：你们会不会成为自身成功的"受害者"？其他车企看到你们的成功，可能会积极推出类似的L2+产品，或许与英伟达、高通合作。如果真是这样，会不会压低辅助驾驶的价格？

A｜马斯克｜00:37:29

I think people take this thing very simply, that you can easily solve the software. I'll let Ashok get into it, but basically it's a very hard problem — a super hard problem.

我觉得大家把这件事想得太简单了，以为软件问题很容易解决。我让阿肖克具体讲，但总的来说，这是一个非常难的问题，极其困难。

A｜AI副总裁阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米｜00:37:56

Yeah, it's easy to get to the first 90% and make a cool-looking demo, but when you get into the long tail of this problem, it's so long that people don't realize — anyone in their sane mind should not attempt to solve this problem. It's so difficult and so long-tailed, and especially to get to a safety level where you can drive safely for millions of miles with no injuries and so on, that's going to be extremely hard. As we release unsupervised FSD to the broader customer fleet, I don't think anyone can match it for several years.

是的，做到前90%、拿出一个看起来很酷的演示很容易，但一旦进入这个问题的长尾部分，你会发现长尾长得超乎想象，任何头脑清醒的人都不该去碰这个问题。它实在太难了，长尾也太长了。尤其是要达到行驶数百万英里而不发生伤亡事故这样的安全水平，会极其困难。随着我们把无需监管的完全自动驾驶推向更广泛的客户车队，我认为几年内没有人能与之匹敌。

A｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾｜00:38:30

And one other thing I'll say, if it wasn't clear: especially in our showrooms here in the US, customers are now coming in and saying, "Can we get an FSD drive?" They're not asking for a 3, Y or Cybertruck; they're saying, "Can we get an FSD drive?" That has become the key driver, because it opens up a lot more flexibility for different parts of the population who had issues driving conveniently before. Now they're getting their freedom back by being able to use FSD. It's a game changer. If you haven't tried it — I keep saying it every time — once you do, you won't be able to go back to driving any other car.

我再补充一点，以免大家没注意到：尤其是在我们美国的门店里，顾客现在进门就问："能体验一下辅助驾驶吗？"他们问的不是Model 3、Model Y或赛博越野旅行车，而是"能体验一下辅助驾驶吗"。这已经成为关键的购车动因，因为它让过去开车不方便的各类人群有了更多自由，现在他们借助辅助驾驶重新获得了出行自由。这是颠覆性的改变。我每次都这么说：如果你还没试过，一旦试过，就再也回不去开别的车了。

Q8追问｜RBC资本市场分析师Tom｜00:39:27　中国市场

Yeah. The follow-up is similar to that question, on China. There, it seems like autonomy is table stakes. Is it the same kind of answer as question one — that those carmakers aren't going to be able to develop similar products to what you have with FSD? Or do you see a definitely different pricing dynamic there?

追问和刚才的问题类似，是关于中国市场的。在中国，自动驾驶能力似乎已经是"标配"。答案是否和第一个问题一样，即那些车企无法开发出与你们辅助驾驶类似的产品？还是说你们认为那里的定价态势肯定不同？

A｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾｜00:39:52

At the beginning, definitely the leapfrog we have in terms of this technology isn't there with any of the other Chinese OEMs today. We're working very diligently to try and get broader FSD approval in China. It is hard, but for certain cars we have been able to have FSD operating, and whoever has tried it there understands how much better it is compared to any of the competition. In fact, I don't know if you've seen this, but some competitor CEOs have come and done FSD drives here in the US, and they themselves have been blown away by what FSD is capable of doing. So it is a similar answer, and again, we're not taking it lightly. We're actively working with the regulators in China. We've released our safety report on FSD before, and we've also released our Robotaxi safety report. We just think this is the right way to get people into a safe environment, given the number of accidents that happen because drivers are not alert. This is the only way we can ensure there are fewer casualties in the world, and any regulator who looks at the data would find it very hard to refute.

首先，就这项技术而言，我们的跨越式领先目前在任何一家中国车企身上都还看不到。我们正在非常努力地争取辅助驾驶在中国获得更广泛的批准。这很难，但在部分车型上，我们已经实现了辅助驾驶的运行，在当地体验过的人都明白它比任何竞品都好得多。事实上，不知道你有没有看到，一些竞争对手的CEO专程来美国体验辅助驾驶，他们自己都被辅助驾驶的能力深深震撼。所以答案是类似的，我们同样不会掉以轻心。我们正在积极与中国监管部门沟通。我们此前已经发布过辅助驾驶安全报告，现在也发布了无人驾驶网约车安全报告。考虑到有多少事故是因为驾驶员注意力不集中造成的，我们认为这是让人们处于安全环境的正确方式，也是减少全球交通伤亡的唯一途径。任何监管机构只要看过这些数据，都很难反驳。

Q9｜Wolfe Research分析师Emmanuel｜00:41:42　无人驾驶网约车的收入与盈利

Great, thank you. Hi, team. On Robotaxi, you've talked about sustaining double-digit week-over-week growth in unsupervised miles. I'm curious if there's a way you can triangulate that for us into revenue and maybe profitability of the Robotaxi business. If you sustain, let's say, 15% week-over-week growth in these miles, you'll probably cross ten million miles by the end of the year. How many miles would you need to generate gross profit?

谢谢，大家好。关于无人驾驶网约车，你们提到无监管里程保持两位数的周环比增长。能否帮我们把这一点换算成该业务的收入，甚至盈利情况？比如说，如果这些里程保持每周15%的增长，到年底可能会突破1000万英里。需要多少里程才能产生毛利？

A｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾、马斯克｜00:42:24

Vaibhav: I think Elon talked about this a little bit at the beginning: using exponential math, this would become a significant part of our revenue and profitability in '27. Elon: Yeah, it's not going to move the needle this quarter, but I think it starts to become noticeable probably in Q2, and probably a big deal by Q3 or Q4 of next year. Vaibhav: Exactly.

瓦巴夫：埃隆在开场时稍微谈到过，按指数增长来推算，这项业务将在2027年成为我们收入和利润的重要组成部分。马斯克：对，本季度还不会带来明显影响，但我认为大概明年第二季度开始会变得明显，到明年第三或第四季度可能就举足轻重了。瓦巴夫：没错。

Q9追问｜Wolfe Research分析师Emmanuel｜00:43:00　特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车产线爬坡

Got it. And then if I think about it in terms of fleet size: I think your Cybercab line capacity is listed at more than 125,000 units a year, and production just recently started. How do you expect the ramp-up curve to be on the Cybercab line?

明白。那从车队规模来看：特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车产线的标称产能是每年12.5万辆以上，而且最近才刚开始生产。你们预计这条产线的爬坡曲线会是怎样的？

A｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾｜00:43:20

I'll kick it off and then let Lars chime in. I would give kudos to the engineering team. I talk not only to the engineers but also to the manufacturing guys, and they think this is one of the easiest products for them to scale in terms of manufacturing, so scaling would not be that much of a challenge. The key thing we're trying to make sure is that we have all the regulatory approvals so we can start deploying Cybercabs as fast as we can produce them. Lars, feel free to chime in.

我先说，再请拉尔斯补充。我要为工程团队点赞。我不光和工程师交流，也和制造团队交流，他们认为这是在制造上最容易扩产的产品之一，所以扩产不会是太大的挑战。我们要确保的关键是拿到所有监管批准，这样就能以生产的速度同步投放特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车。拉尔斯，你来补充。

A｜车辆工程副总裁拉尔斯·莫拉维｜00:43:58

Yeah, thanks, Vaibhav, appreciate the accolades. The team definitely crushed it on the Cybercab design and manufacturing. To your point, we have 50% fewer parts than any other vehicle we've ever built, so that's 50% fewer things to go wrong. We've definitely been bursting the Cybercab line to see how fast we can run it. I think the listed capacity is more the rate at which we're capable of running today, but the actual capacity of that vehicle line is significantly higher. Right now we're building at the rate the Robotaxi service needs vehicles. I'll say Ashok and I are in a bit of a race over who's going to stay ahead: he's got exponential growth coming on the miles month over month, and we're going to look to meet that with vehicle production.

谢谢瓦巴夫的夸奖。团队在特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车的设计和制造上确实做得非常出色。说到这一点，它的零部件比我们以往造过的任何车型都少50%，也就意味着出问题的环节少了50%。我们一直在对这条产线进行冲刺测试，看看最快能跑到多快。我认为标称产能更多反映的是目前能达到的运行速度，这条产线的实际产能要高得多。现在我们是按无人驾驶网约车服务对车辆的需求节奏来生产的。可以说，我和阿肖克在比赛谁能跑在前面：他那边的里程每月都在指数级增长，我们这边也要用车辆产量跟上。

Q10｜摩根士丹利分析师Andrew｜00:44:48　储能、分布式电力与分布式算力

Great, thanks so much for taking the question. I want to start on your energy business. You're clearly seeing a lot of demand on the energy storage or Megapack side, and you've got some goals to bring on your own solar manufacturing. I was hoping to get a little more insight into how you're thinking about Tesla's role in enabling both distributed power and distributed compute. I think last quarter you alluded to a Megapod product. What are you envisioning there, and ultimately how big could this be for Tesla?

非常感谢回答我的问题。我想先问能源业务。你们在储能，也就是特斯拉储能系统Megapack这一块，显然看到了大量需求，同时也有自建太阳能制造的目标。我想进一步了解，你们如何看待特斯拉在推动分布式电力和分布式算力方面的角色？上个季度你们似乎提到过一款Megapod产品。你们对它有什么设想，它最终对特斯拉能有多大意义？

A｜马斯克｜00:45:38

I think it's still early days on that front. We don't know the full extent of how that'll unfold. We'll have a better sense for that probably maybe at the end of Q1 or Q2. It does have a lot of potential; it's just hard to say how much potential right now.

我认为这方面还处于早期阶段，我们还不清楚它最终会如何发展。大概到明年一季度末或二季度，我们会有更清晰的判断。它确实很有潜力，只是现在很难说潜力有多大。

Q10追问｜摩根士丹利分析师Andrew｜00:46:00　无人驾驶网约车扩张的瓶颈

Okay, understood. And maybe just a follow-up on Robotaxi. It does seem like you've hit an inflection point in Austin over the last month or so since you launched the Cybercab. Would you generally say the bottlenecks to growth at this point are more regulatory-driven as you expand into new geographies, and that you've gotten through most of the hurdles on the software side? Just curious how you would categorize some of those growth hurdles in the incremental regions you're planning to scale into over the next few months.

明白。再追问一下无人驾驶网约车。自从推出特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车以来的一个月左右，奥斯汀似乎已经迎来拐点。在向新地区扩张时，你们认为现阶段的增长瓶颈是否更多来自监管，而软件方面的障碍大多已经克服？想了解你们如何看待未来几个月计划进入的新地区所面临的增长障碍。

A｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾、AI副总裁阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米｜00:46:42

Vaibhav: There are still certain software challenges we are working through. Ashok talked about it, so maybe Ashok can take it. Ashok: For example, we initially had the Robotaxi service from 6 AM to 9 PM, then we expanded to 10 PM, 11 PM, and pretty soon it's going to be 2 AM. So we are slowly expanding the availability of Robotaxi, and that is driven by the capability of the AI software. We just want to make sure there's not a single safety incident — that is our operating principle. Even if there's the slightest possible risk, we don't take on that risk. We are very risk-averse in that sense: we want zero injuries or anything bad happening, and that is the driving principle. Over the rest of this year, we'll unlock 24/7 operation and go to higher-speed roads, and we think all of that is necessary to scale and offer a great product to a lot of users. That's why we wanted to do both breadth-first across multiple cities — we're in six cities now — and depth, with a lot of vehicles in a single city, which is Austin. We'll expand to more weather conditions, day and night conditions, highways and high speeds, and all of that will be done hopefully by the end of this year, at which point you will see a lot more scaling and a lot more cities covered by Robotaxi. So it's not purely regulatory; it is technology-driven, but we do see it pretty quickly becoming regulatory, perhaps in the Q1, Q2 timeframe.

瓦巴夫：软件方面仍有一些挑战需要攻克。阿肖克谈过这个，请阿肖克来回答。阿肖克：比如，无人驾驶网约车服务最初的运营时间是早6点到晚9点，后来延长到晚10点、11点，很快会延长到凌晨2点。我们正在逐步扩大服务时段，而这取决于AI软件的能力。我们只想确保不发生任何一起安全事故，这是我们的运营原则。哪怕只有一丝风险，我们也不去冒。从这个意义上说，我们非常规避风险：我们要的是零伤亡、不出任何意外，这是我们的根本原则。在今年余下的时间里，我们将实现全天候24小时运营，并开放更高车速的道路。我们认为，要扩大规模、为大量用户提供出色的产品，这些都是必要的。所以我们既做广度，在多个城市铺开，目前已覆盖六个城市；也做深度，在单个城市即奥斯汀投放大量车辆。我们还会扩展到更多天气条件、昼夜条件、高速公路和更高车速，希望在今年年底前全部完成，届时你会看到无人驾驶网约车的规模大幅扩大，覆盖更多城市。所以瓶颈并不完全是监管，而是技术驱动的；但我们确实认为，很快，大概在明年一、二季度，瓶颈会转向监管。

Q11｜德意志银行分析师Edison｜00:48:25　Terafab的资本投入与里程碑

Great, thank you for taking our questions. First, I want to ask about Terafab. Elon, I know you mentioned an aspirational goal of Q2 '28 [as transcribed]. Do you have a sense of how much capital needs to be invested to get there, and what kind of milestones we should be on the lookout for on the way?

谢谢回答我们的问题。首先想问Terafab。埃隆，你提到了2028年第二季度（编者注：转写如此，马斯克开场所说为2028年第三季度）的目标。你们是否估算过达成这一目标需要投入多少资本？途中我们应该关注哪些里程碑？

A｜马斯克｜00:48:59

Well, it's going to be some pretty significant capital. It's certainly in the tens of billions for Terafab, although we've got to figure out the relative split between SpaceX and Tesla in terms of who pays for what at Terafab. But it's not going to be less than tens of billions in capital equipment up through early 2028, and then it'll probably be north of a hundred billion long term.

这会是相当大的一笔资本投入，Terafab肯定需要数百亿美元。不过SpaceX和特斯拉之间如何分摊、谁为Terafab的哪部分出资，我们还需要商定。但截至2028年初，资本设备投入不会少于数百亿美元，长期来看可能会超过1000亿美元。

A｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾、马斯克｜00:49:46

Vaibhav: And I'll just add, for the first set of equipment for the fab which Tesla is building, we've actually already placed most of the orders, and that's why, when Elon was talking about the middle of next year, that is from the first fab — the research fab. Elon: The research fab, yeah. That's where we're just figuring out how to work the equipment, that type of thing. But real production would be late '28, which is lightning fast by fab standards.

瓦巴夫：我补充一点，特斯拉正在建设的晶圆厂，首批设备的订单我们其实已经下了大部分。所以埃隆说的明年年中，指的是第一座晶圆厂，也就是研发晶圆厂。马斯克：对，研发晶圆厂，在那里我们主要是摸索怎么用好这些设备之类的。真正的量产会在2028年底，按晶圆厂的标准，这已经是闪电般的速度了。

Q11追问｜德意志银行分析师Edison｜00:50:12　特斯拉人形机器人设计还在哪里调整

Understood. And just a quick follow-up on Optimus. I know you mentioned we could see a video soon and there's quite a bit of progress, but you're still making some refinements. Generally speaking, where do you see most of the design changes still happening going forward? Is it still the hand? Anything you can call out there?

明白。再快速追问一下特斯拉人形机器人。你们提到很快会发布视频、进展不小，但仍在做一些改进。总体来说，接下来大部分设计调整会集中在哪里？还是手部的问题吗？能具体说说吗？

A｜特斯拉人形机器人项目负责人康斯坦丁诺斯·拉斯卡里斯｜00:50:45

Elon: Yeah, most of the difficulty — Constas, why don't you answer this question? Kostas: The hand is actually one of the most challenging hardware areas. Most of the electromechanical system, I would say, is relatively high confidence, meaning it has converged to something that works decently well. The hand, from an electromechanical point of view, is more complicated than the actuators for the locomotion system, for example. There are also some bespoke gears carrying a lot of burden for consumption and reliability that we are still developing. Yeah, this would be the most challenging.

康斯坦丁诺斯，你来回答吧。康斯坦丁诺斯：马斯克：是的，大部分难点在于……Kostas, why don手部其实是最具挑战性的硬件领域之一。我认为机电系统的大部分已经比较有把握，也就是说已经收敛到一个运行相当不错的方案。从机电角度看，手部比行走系统的执行器等部件更复杂。此外，还有一些定制齿轮在能耗和可靠性上承担了很大负荷，我们仍在开发中。是的，这是最难的部分。

A｜马斯克｜00:51:42

Yeah, it's mostly the hand — the fine-tuning of the hand design, and the fingers especially. It's a hard problem, because humans have self-repair: our hands repair, our body repairs itself, but robots don't. And our fingers are kind of squishy and have lots of sensors in our skin. It's hard to make a hand that can handle lots of wear and tear but is still squishy enough to pick up delicate objects, has all the sensors, and doesn't damage the sensors when you do repeated actions. There are a lot of little things where you realize what an incredible thing the human hand is at the end of the day. So from an electromechanical standpoint, it's mostly the hand. Other things throughout the robot are improving as well, but that's the main thing. And then, as I mentioned, upgrading the onboard intelligence of the robot with AI5, which is a big step change in intelligence, will help a lot with the capabilities of Optimus. I've said before that humanoid robots will be the biggest product on Earth, and their usefulness, as a rough approximation, will be a multiple of the electromechanical dexterity, the AI software and the AI chip hardware. All three of those things are improving exponentially — I know we use that word a lot — and the value is roughly those three things multiplied by each other. And then Optimus robots will build the future Optimus robots, so you have a recursive function. When you have a recursive multiplicative exponential, things will really grow extremely fast. They may start from a small base, but they're going to grow to crazy levels. And I think at some point there will be more humanoid robots on Earth than there are humans.

是的，主要是手部，尤其是手部设计的精细调校，特别是手指。这是个难题，因为人体能自我修复，我们的手、我们的身体都能自我修复，但机器人不能。而且我们的手指有一定柔软度，皮肤里有大量传感器。要造出一只既能经受大量磨损、又柔软到能拿起易碎物品，还要装满传感器、并在重复动作中不损坏传感器的手，非常困难。有很多细节会让你意识到，人手归根结底是多么神奇的东西。所以从机电角度看，难点主要在手部。机器人其他部位也在不断改进，但手部是主要问题。

另外，正如我提到的，用AI5升级机器人的本地智能，这是智能水平的一次重大飞跃，将大幅提升特斯拉人形机器人的能力。我之前说过，人形机器人将是地球上最大的产品。粗略来说，它的实用性取决于三者的乘积：机电灵巧性、AI软件和AI芯片硬件。这三者都在呈指数级提升，我知道我们经常用这个词，而它的价值大致就是这三者相乘。此外，特斯拉人形机器人将来会制造新的人形机器人，这就形成了递归。当你拥有递归的、相乘的指数增长时，发展速度会极其惊人。它们可能从很小的基数起步，但会增长到疯狂的水平。我认为到某个时候，地球上的人形机器人会比人类还多。

Q12｜美国银行分析师Alex｜00:54:00　无人驾驶网约车定价

Hi, thanks for taking our questions. First on Robotaxi: it looks like you're pricing lower than competitor ride-share and other Robotaxi players in most markets. Is that the plan longer term, to take market share given some of your structural cost advantages?

谢谢回答我们的问题。首先是无人驾驶网约车：在大多数市场，你们的定价似乎低于网约车竞争对手和其他无人驾驶网约车企业。考虑到你们的一些结构性成本优势，长期来说是否打算以此抢占市场份额？

A｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾、马斯克｜00:54:30

Vaibhav: Yeah. Remember, when you're comparing, you're comparing us with ride-share, which has a driver in there, and we don't. Plus, we are manufacturing the car ourselves, so our cost basis overall is different. I think I said it in my opening remarks and I'll say it again, without wanting to be too repetitive: basically, our goal is to take over any kind of transportation. Elon: Unless we're stopped by governments — which is certainly a possibility, like if they're trying to protect a domestic industry — I think Tesla will end up doing a majority of all passenger miles on Earth in any country where it is allowed to operate freely. You can come back and look at this prediction, but I feel confident about it.

瓦巴夫：是的。请注意，做比较时，你拿我们和网约车比，网约车需要司机，而我们不需要。再加上车是我们自己造的，所以整体成本基础不同。我在开场发言中说过，这里再说一遍，虽然不想太啰嗦：我们的目标基本上是覆盖各种形式的交通运输。

马斯克：除非我们被政府叫停，这当然有可能，比如有的政府想保护本国产业，否则我认为，在任何允许特斯拉自由运营的国家，地球上大部分载客里程最终都将由特斯拉完成。你们以后可以回头来检验这个预测，但我对它很有信心。

Q12追问｜美国银行分析师Alex｜00:55:31　无监管里程能否继续高速增长

Really helpful. And then my follow-up, on the key metric here, unsupervised miles driven. I think it grew at a high-teens weekly growth rate since late July. Is it still the expectation that you'll continue to grow that at a double-digit weekly rate through the balance of the year? And what is really enabling that type of growth? It seems like you've definitely hit a comfort level in scaling much more rapidly. How much of that is Cybercab, and how much is better safety validation with the latest version of FSD? And on fleet composition, do you expect Cybercab to represent the majority of the Robotaxi fleet over time?

非常有帮助。我的追问是关于关键指标，也就是无监管行驶里程。我认为自7月下旬以来，它每周的增速在百分之十几的高位。你们是否仍预计今年余下时间会保持两位数的周增速？真正推动这种增长的是什么？你们在加快扩张方面显然已经有了把握，其中有多少归功于特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车，又有多少归功于最新版辅助驾驶软件更好的安全验证？另外，从车队构成看，你们预计特斯拉赛博无人驾驶电动车最终会占无人驾驶网约车车队的大部分吗？

A｜AI副总裁阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米｜00:56:15

Yes. We will continue the scaling for the foreseeable future; we don't see any hurdles along the way. Obviously there's work required, but we do see a clear path towards scaling to millions of vehicles over the next several months. This is happening primarily due to the technology investments we have made over several years, and also the V15 stack we alluded to earlier this year. All of the foundation is hard to see — it's like an iceberg: people only see the tip, and there's a ton of work that goes into it. Now we are starting to see the payoff of all that work — developing end-to-end neural networks, learning from humans and so on. All of that is paying off. So what you're seeing is the result of many years of work; it didn't just happen in the last several months. And the same technology should scale to millions of vehicles wherever we are allowed to operate.

是的。在可预见的未来，我们会继续扩大规模，目前看不到任何障碍。当然还有工作要做，但我们确实看到了一条清晰的路径，可以在未来几个月内扩展到数百万辆车的规模。这主要得益于我们多年来的技术投入，以及今年早些时候提到的V15技术栈。这些基础工作很难被看到，就像冰山一样，人们只看到露出水面的尖角，背后投入了大量工作。现在我们开始看到这些工作的回报，包括端到端神经网络的开发、向人类驾驶学习等等，都在开花结果。所以你看到的是多年努力的成果，并不是最近几个月才突然发生的。同样的技术应当能够扩展到数百万辆车，覆盖我们获准运营的任何地方。

Q13｜New Street Research分析师Pierre｜00:57:20　辅助驾驶的经常性收入

Thanks for taking the question, guys. I wanted to come back to — I'm really fascinated by — 75% of US cars selling with FSD. The interesting thing is that the day you sell a car, it probably generates about $7,000 of gross profit. FSD, of course, generates more than $1,000 a year, so it makes a minimal impact on the numbers in the quarter the car is sold, but over the lifetime of the car it probably at least doubles the profit per car. Am I looking at it the right way? And are you at some point going to disclose the annual recurring revenue that FSD represents? I did my own math, and I think it's probably now approaching a billion dollars of ARR. Is that the right order of magnitude?

谢谢回答我的问题。我想回到美国75%的新车销售都带辅助驾驶这一点，我对此非常感兴趣。有意思的是，一辆车卖出当天大概产生7000美元左右的毛利，而辅助驾驶每年当然能带来1000多美元收入。所以它对汽车售出当季的数字影响很小，但在车辆整个生命周期内，单车利润可能至少翻一番。我这样理解对吗？你们以后会不会披露辅助驾驶的年度经常性收入？我自己算过，估计现在已经接近10亿美元。这个量级对吗？

A｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾｜00:58:30

Yeah. I think the numbers you shared are correct. As it scales further, we will start sharing more metrics around FSD — not just the revenue, but also other key metrics around it.

是的，我认为你给出的数字是对的。随着规模进一步扩大，我们会开始披露更多与辅助驾驶相关的指标，不仅是收入，还有其他关键指标。

Q13追问｜New Street Research分析师Pierre｜00:58:54　订阅留存率

Okay. And as a quick follow-up, do you already have a good sense of the retention rate? How many people, three or six months down the line, stick to the monthly subscription? And do you see the percentage of drivers falling off?

好的。再快速追问一下，你们对留存率是否已经心中有数？三个月或六个月后，有多少人会继续保持月度订阅？你们是否看到用户流失的比例？

A｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾｜00:59:09

Yeah. Like I said, we will share more metrics around churn rates and whatnot. The reason we are not doing it at this stage is that we're doing a lot of things, especially with new countries being added, where we offer free trials. And one thing I'd like to make clear: when I say that in North America we have a 75% attach rate at the time of delivery, every car we deliver comes with a month of free FSD subscription — and still people are signing up, even though they have that free month available.

好的。正如我所说，我们之后会披露流失率等更多指标。现阶段没有披露，是因为我们正在做很多事情，特别是在新增国家提供免费试用。还有一点我想说清楚：我说北美交付时的选装率达到75%，而我们交付的每一辆车都附赠一个月的免费辅助驾驶订阅，即便有免费期，人们仍然在交付时就付费开通。

Q14｜Oppenheimer分析师Colin｜01:00:01　在手部定型前先提产以开展训练

Thanks so much, guys. Elon, can you talk about the strategy around ramping Optimus production a little to start training, even if the hands aren't fully baked with the final design? It seems like there's a lot you could do in terms of the training cycle and maturing some of the simulation technology, even without perfected hands.

非常感谢。埃隆，能否谈谈先小幅提升特斯拉人形机器人产量、开始训练的策略，即便手部还没有按最终设计定型？看起来即使手部还不完美，在训练循环和仿真技术成熟方面也有很多事可以做。

A｜马斯克｜01:00:32

Well, that's what we're doing. We're building robots that do not have perfected hands, and we are making progress with Optimus training and ironing out all aspects of the supply chain and the production system. We're doing all these things in parallel: this giant production line at our Fremont factory, a massive supply chain, and fine-tuning the design and engineering simultaneously with the AI software. All these things are happening simultaneously, and we're going as fast as humanly possible. In fact, I'd be stunned if anyone has a robot that is remotely competitive with Optimus when we start delivering it to customers, which is likely to be towards the end of next year.

我们正是这么做的。我们在制造手部尚未完善的机器人，同时在特斯拉人形机器人训练方面取得进展，并理顺供应链和生产体系的各个环节。所有这些都在并行推进：弗里蒙特工厂这条庞大的生产线、规模巨大的供应链，以及与AI软件同步进行的设计和工程精调。这些事情同时发生，我们正以人力所能达到的最快速度推进。事实上，等我们开始向客户交付时，大概是明年年底前后，如果有人拿出的机器人能和特斯拉人形机器人稍微比一比，我会非常震惊。

A｜CFO瓦巴夫·塔内贾、马斯克｜01:01:42

Vaibhav: And you should know that, not only the Fremont factory, we've also started constructing a factory here in Austin, which will be able to do a lot more robots compared to the Fremont one. So, going back to what Elon was saying, we're doing whatever we can. We're not stopping; we're going at the fastest pace we can. Elon: Yeah, we're definitely, as they say in Vegas, betting on the come.

瓦巴夫：还要告诉大家，除了弗里蒙特工厂，我们也已经开始在奥斯汀建设一座工厂，产能将远超弗里蒙特。所以回到埃隆说的，我们在尽一切努力，不会停下脚步，而是以最快的速度推进。马斯克：是的，就像拉斯维加斯的说法，我们这是押注未来。

Q14追问｜Oppenheimer分析师Colin｜01:02:05　半导体设备产能与资本支出

Awesome. And then, in terms of semicap capacity availability, can you talk about how you're navigating that with the suppliers? Obviously, seeing some deposits get put down on equipment and getting deliveries moving forward is a net positive on Terafab. But are there some more aggressive things you can do to start getting ready for the larger ramp now? And how should we think about that flowing through the CapEx budget?

好的。另外，在半导体设备的产能供应方面，能否谈谈你们如何与供应商协调？显然，为设备支付定金、推动交付是Terafab的利好。但现在是否有更积极的措施，为更大规模的爬坡做准备？这部分在资本支出预算中会如何体现？

A｜马斯克（说话人待核实）｜01:02:38

It's not a massive impact right now. I think CapEx is actually ending up being a little lower than we anticipated. But it will start to become more meaningful next year, and then noticeable, like in the tens of billions, in '28.

目前影响并不大。我认为资本支出实际上会比我们预期的略低一些。但明年开始会变得更可观，到2028年会相当明显，规模在数百亿美元级别。

结束语｜投资者关系负责人特拉维斯·阿克塞尔罗德｜01:02:55

All right, we are coming up on time here. We appreciate everyone's questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much and goodbye.

好的，时间差不多了。感谢大家的提问，期待下个季度再与各位交流。非常感谢，再见。